on 8 feb 2008, i got a note from William Boatright… mentioning that he’s going to release the new version of his Expert Advisor over the weekend. he attached a note that he’ll be sending out to the remaining subscribers (i think not many after the dismal performance so far). i thought that the note contained good information that all of us should be aware of… especially for those (like me) who are still hopeful that William Boatright can produce something profitable. even an EA half as profitable as Bogie-ATC2007-1 during the 2007 Automated Trading Championship would be more than sufficient.
anyway, below is the note that went out to the remaining Bogie subscribers :
From Bogie_Enterprise <bogie_enterprise@bellsouth.net>:
> To: Bogie Subscribers.
>
> I’ve been concerned over the several loses that this EA had in January. As
> previously reported, the success of Bogie-ATC2007 EA is its ability to
> detect daily trends (swings) at a predetermined time of day. A daily time
> based trend recognition system. And, the fact, that the daily trend detected
> at StartTime would continue long enough to secure a small profit. It
> requires that most days, after StartTime, that trading daily news is over
> and current bullish or bearish trend will continue until next day. In
> January 2008, there were a steady stream of news releases either just
> before or soon after StartTime. The EA as-has problem with this current
> erratic volatile market where there are repeated 100-300 pips daily spike
> swings.
>
> Recently, I began testing an Neural Network (NN) indicator to filter trade
> signals to be more selective on order entry. The results have been very
> promising. Attached is a .doc file with charts of qualifying tests and
> difference between EA as-is and with NN filter.
> attachment : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/members/Bogie-NN-charts.doc
on a more serious note, i would like to take this chance to apologize to those who have stayed loyal to this blog and have followed my lead by going LIVE with Bogie-ATC2007-1 back in early jan 2008. most who took the plunge with me would have lost some money… and i was no different too. my trading capital reduced by approx -14% within 17 trading days. those who went LIVE with the more aggressive settings lost a lot more. some told me that their LIVE account was reduced by more than -50% before bailing out.
with that in mind, i will now refrain from making anymore “recommendations”. like Bogie-ATC2007-1, DoublePlay v4.0 and FractalWizard did not perform as expected too. on hindsight, the recent events have really drove home the truth about a statement that we so often see…. “past performance is no guarantee of future results”. even with excellent back-test and forward-test results, the MARKET has it’s own way of testing each and every trading system out there. once you loose that respect for the MARKET, you are more or less doomed.
at this point, i would like to draw an analogy comparing the MARKET to the OCEAN…. and a trader to a surfer. respect the waves and one is likely to ride it well. i don’t think i need to illustrate the opposite :O)
===============
… back to the Bogie-NeuralNetwork-1 EA….
i received the new version of Bogie which comes with a Neural Network indicator on 8 feb 2008. the back-testing charts in the attached document looked good (see above link to the Word document)… but it’s still “BACK-TESTING”.
as we all know now, back-testing and optimising did not help in making Bogie-ATC2007-1 profitable in the past… so i’m going to be somewhat skeptical about the wonders that this Neural Network filter can do. it’s clear that William Boatright has FX flowing in his blood…. and his commitment in creating the best EA (in his ability) has continued to hold firm. but despite that, what really counts is when the Expert Advisor brings in the pips… everything else is secondary when results are not showing………… yet :O)
so as of today, i’ve placed the new Bogie-NeuralNetwork-1 EA on the tracks… using default settings with StartTime = 18. the LIVE forward-test statement (updated every 10 mins) can be viewed here : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements/bogie-neuralnetwork-1
fyi, the new Bogie-NeuralNetwork-1 now comes with 2 additional files :
1) Bogie-NN-IND-v1.ex4 (indicator)
2) Bogie-NeuralNetwork-1-lib.ex4 (library)
if you would like to view the actual statement off InterBankFX’s server, you can make use of the below read-only investor password :
Login : 1847631
Password : t6byxmk (read only password)
good trading to all!!
- ck (email : ckowyong@gmail.com)
IMPORTANT : please do not rush out and subscribe to Bogie just because it’s now using a “Neural Network” filter. just watch the forward-test that i’m running and make your decision after it makes some trades (hopefully winners!!). but if you do subscribe, please quote “ckowyong” in your order to get a discounted rate. doing so will also allow me to get a little commission… which helps a great deal in keeping this blog running.
ps : there are a few sites on the internet promoting William’s EA… google it and visit them to get a feel of what the others are saying about it. it’s always good to compare the notes of different reviewers… as each reviewer can only draw from their own personal experiences and knowledge… and this alone can vary a lot).
pps : if you’ve found this post helpful (or objectionable), i would appreciate if you could leave your comments and feedback here : http://ckowyong.com/blog/?p=29
would love to have a coffee too if you are feeling generous :O) …. thanks in advance!! :O)
buy ck a coffee :O)Share This